President Yoweri Museveni is set to campaign for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) flagbearer, Faridah Nambi, in the highly anticipated Kawempe North by-election.
This move is seen as a critical test of the ruling party’s ability to challenge the opposition’s stronghold in Kampala.
A Tough Battle in Opposition Territory
Kawempe North has historically been an opposition stronghold, with the National Unity Platform (NUP) dominating recent elections.
In 2021, the late Muhammad Ssegirinya of NUP won the seat with a staggering 41,197 votes, leaving his closest competitor, independent candidate Sulaiman Kidandala, far behind with 7,512 votes. NRM’s Tom Johnfisher Kasenge came in third with just 6,946 votes.
Museveni’s intervention aims to reverse this trend and secure a victory for Nambi, daughter of NRM vice-chairman Al-Hajj Moses Kigongo. However, the odds remain steep.
NRM’s Strategy: Linking Services to Votes
Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja has been on the ground, rallying support for Nambi in key areas like Bwaise, Kazo-Angola, and Kyebando.
She has urged residents to vote for a government-aligned candidate, arguing that opposition legislators cannot effectively lobby for services.
“The people of Kampala lack services because they vote wrongly. They vote for leaders who don’t sit in the NRM parliamentary caucus, where key decisions on resource allocation are made,” Nabbanja said.
This strategy, which ties access to public services to political allegiance, has been a long-standing NRM tactic. However, opposition supporters dismiss it as political blackmail.
Security and Campaign Controversies
The by-election campaign has been marred by heavy security involvement, with early violence against NUP supporters drawing widespread criticism.
Related: Tayebwa Slams Security Agencies Over Torture in Kawempe North By-Election
Following public outcry and intervention from the Electoral Commission, security forces eased restrictions, allowing NUP’s candidate, Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola, to hold large rallies.
The NRM, however, claims these rallies are staged events with ferried supporters.
Related: Gen Muhoozi Praises JATT Amidst Controversy in Kawempe North
Museveni’s Track Record in By-Elections
Museveni’s presence in Kawempe North will be closely watched, especially given NRM’s recent by-election losses.
In Kisoro, his campaign for Rose Kabagyeni ended in defeat as an NRM-leaning independent, Grace Akifeeza Ngabirano, took the seat.
However, by-elections in Uganda generally favor the ruling party, as it can concentrate resources on the contest.
NRM has previously faced tough battles in opposition strongholds, notably in Kyaddondo East in 2017, when Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu—now NUP leader—shocked the establishment with a landslide victory.
The Frontrunners
Nalukoola and Nambi remain the frontrunners in a race that has attracted nine candidates, including:
- Henry Kasacca Mubiru (Democratic Party)
- Sadat Mukiibi (Forum for Democratic Change)
- Ismail Musiitwa (People’s Progressive Party)
Independent candidates include Mohammad Luwemba, a former aide to Ssegirinya, and Moses Nsereko, who lost in NUP’s primaries.
What’s at Stake?
With the election set for Thursday, Museveni’s involvement is likely to shape the final stretch of the contest. However, whether his campaign can tilt the scales in NRM’s favor remains to be seen.
